Quantifying ENSO and IOD Impact to Hotspot in Indonesia Based on Heterogeneous Correlation Map
M Dafri(1)*, S Nurdiati(1), A Sopaheluwakan(2)

1) Mathematics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, IPB University, Bogor 16680, Indonesia
2) Center of Research and Development, Agency for Meteorology Climatolgy and Geophysics, Jakarta 10720, Indonesia

Abstract

Land and forest fires in Indonesia have a long history. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) also have a role on land and forest fires in Indonesia. There are several major land and forest fires in Indonesia such as in 2002, 2006, 2009, 2015, and 2019 were allegedly an impact of ENSO and IOD. This research aims to find out how much ENSO and IOD impact to land and forest fires in Indonesia. This research was used Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies in Nino 3.4 region and IOD region as an indicator for ENSO and IOD, while hotspot was used as an indicator of land and forest fires in Indonesia. Heterogeneous Correlation Map (HCM) was used to describe the correlation of hotspots with ENSO variance and IOD variance on spatial patterns. The HCM obtained from Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analysis to identify the variances. The result showed that anomalies SST in Nino 3.4 region has greater correlations with hotspot in Provinces South Kalimantan and East Kalimantan, than other regions in Indonesian. Anomalies SST in Eastern IOD and DMI has greater correlations with hotspot in Provinces Lampung, South Sumatra, Jambi, South Kalimantan and Central Kalimantan, than other regions in Indonesia, while Western IOD has the smaller correlations with hotspot. Temporal analysis showed that larger variance of hotspot in Indonesia mostly at the mid of the year, where is it as an impact from dry season in Indonesia.

Keywords: ADipole Mode Index, Land and Forest Fires, Hetergenous Correllation Map, Nino 3.4 Index, Sea Surface Temperature, Singular Value Decomposition

Topic: Mathematics