Analysis of Electrical Load Using Combined Method (Study Case 2019 – 2029 in PT. PLN (Persero) UP3 Sukabumi)
Imam Arif Rahardjo, Massus Subekti, Parjiman, Desitha Rosyanti

Electrical Engineering Education, Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Negeri Jakarta

Abstract

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to find out how much power contracted to Sukabumi from 2019-2029 using the combined method at PT. PLN (Persero) UP3 Sukabumi. Estimates of electricity load needs are forecasts of the future using historical data. Forecast can be used as a picture in the coming year about the amount of electricity demand. The increasing population in the Sukabumi region is proportional to the electricity load needs. Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), the number of electricity customers, as well as the development of infrastructure can affect the demand forecast for electricity demand. This research uses a combined method which is a method compiled by combining several models such as econometrics, analysis, and trends with a sectoral approach which is an approach by grouping electricity consumers into four sectors, namely the resident, commercial, public, and industrial sectors. The results of the calculation of forecasts of electricity load needs in this study stated that the population, GRDP, number of electricity customers and electricity load needs increased. The results of the calculation of the population rate of Sukabumi 0.36% per year; Sukabumis GRDP growth rate of 6.26%; the number of electricity customers in the resident sector 5.26%, the number of electricity customers in the commercial sector 13.96%, the number of public sector electricity customers 7.58%, the number of electricity customers in the industrial sector 3.53%. So, it can be concluded that the increase in electricity demand in 2019 was 1,054.22 MVA and in 2029 it was 2,043.80 MVA with an average annual growth of 6.74%

Keywords: Combined Methods, Electrical Load, Forecast

Topic: Electrical Engineering