Analysis of Asphalt Refinery Development Case Study: Production Capacity Planning and Location Determination Akhmad Bajora Nasution (1) , RR. Ratih Dyah, Ph.D. (2)
(1) Faculty of Economics & Business-University of Indonesia, Jalan Salemba Raya No.4 - Central Jakarta, bajora.nasution[at]gmail.com
(2) aculty of Economics & Business-University of Indonesia, Jalan Salemba Raya No.4 - Central Jakarta, ratih.irzan[at]gmail.com
Abstract
Indonesia as a developing country in the Southeast Asia region is one of the countries with a fairly large asphalt consumption. Domestic demand for asphalt annually is around 1.3-1.4 million MT/year and Pertamina, as the only domestic asphalt producer, is currently only able to fulfill 50% of the market share (Pertamina Annual Report, 2020). From the 50% market share, about 300 thousand MT is produced from the Refinery Unit (RU) IV production located in Cilacap, while the remaining around 300 thousand is obtained through an import scheme.
In order to meet domestic demand which still has a potential of 600-700 thousand MT/year while increasing market share to 80-85%, the company plans to build an asphalt refinery. For this reason, it is necessary to analyze the capacity planning of the Asphalt refinery using the Winter^s Exponential Smoothing forecasting method and determining the location of the Asphalt refinery using the Fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method.
Based on the calculation of capacity planning, to obtain a market share of at least 85% until 2030, the company must build an asphalt refinery with a production capacity of about ± 2 million MT/year. As for the development location, the alternative locations were sorted from the most suitable, namely the East Java/Tuban area at 53%, followed by the Banten/Cilegon area at 31%, the Riau/Dumai area at 10%, and the Riau Islands/Batam region by 6%.
