Modeling Simulation of COVID-19 Spreading at Schools and Workplaces
Seprianus(a), Nuning Nuraini(a), Suhadi W. Saputro(a)

1Fakultas Matematika dan Ilmu Pengetahuan Alam, Institut Teknologi Bandung
Jalan Ganesha 10, Bandung 40132, Indonesia

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has created a widespread global shock and slowdown in all sectors worldwide. Especially in education and work, the pandemic has caused drastic and massive changes. Almost all schools and universities do online learning. Almost workplaces apply work from home. However, many surveys tell us that online learning is not effective enough in learning process and work from home can reduces productivity. Therefore, in this research, we propose a simple mathematical model to determine how many students or employees are allowed to come to school or office everyday so that infection case number does not increase in next 100 days. We use a discrete SIR model on a dynamic random network constructed by independent and random moves from students and employees in an area of 100 square meters for 8 hours. By taking certain values for epidemiology parameters, we obtain numerically that maximum number of individuals allowed to come to schools and offices for 8 hours each day within 100 days so that the number of infection cases does not increase is only 11 people.

Keywords: network epidemic, COVID-19, mathematical modeling

Topic: Mathematics