SEIPAHRF Model for the Dynamics of Covid-19 Transmission in Indonesia Yusuf Fuad (1), Kurnia Dewy Isnaini (2*), Dimas Avian Maulana (3)
Mathematics Department, Universitas Negeri Surabaya
Abstract
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19) is an infectious disease caused by the coronavirus from the coronaviridae family. The spread of the virus is fast in several countries, as well as in Indonesia. This study aims to implement the dynamic model of SEIPAHRF for the transmission of Covid-19 in Indonesia country, for the period 15 May - 14 August 2021 when the Enforcement of Restrictions on Community Activities (PPKM) regulation was implemented in Indonesia country. This study also discusses basic reproduction numbers, equilibrium points, stability, and sensitivity of the dynamic model based on variations in parameter values. The numerical simulation of the SEIPAHRF model is given using all parameter values and initial values taken from Ndairou (2020), then compared to actual data from the Indonesia Covid-19 Task Force. Based on the results, this study obtained the basic reproduction number more than 1, which means that Covid-19 has spread and had become an epidemic. The stability analysis of the SEIPAHRF^s model based on the equilibrium points conclude that the disease-free equilibrium point is unstable, and the endemic equilibrium point is asymptotic stable. The numerical simulation results from the SEIPAHRF^s model is positively consistent with the actual data from the Indonesia Covid-19 Task Force.
