Development of a Simulation Model for Buyan Lake Conditions (Area) Based on Community Environmental and Social Factors I Gede Aris Gunadi (1,2), Gede Indrawan(1), Dewi Oktofa Rachmawati(2), Muhamad Fauzan(1)
(1)Postgraduate Programe , Magister Computer Science, Universitas pendidikan Ganesha
(2) Programe study Physics Education , Universitas Pendidikan Ganesha
Abstract
The existence of lakes in people^s lives is very important, as a source of drinking water supply, water for agriculture. nature tourism, fisheries and others. Especially for the Balinese people who adhere to the philosophy of life of Tri Hita Karana, they really appreciate the existence of the lake. Respect for the lake in sad kertih is called danu kertih, which is an effort to maintain fresh water sources on land, such as springs, lakes, rivers, and others. Buyan Lake is a lake in Pancasari Village, Sukasada District, Buleleng Regency. This lake has a very important role for the life of the people of central Bali, and Buleleng in particular. The existence of the lake from year to year shows that the conditions are getting worse, the area is shrinking, silting inward, the buffer forest environment around the lake is getting worse. This study aims to develop a simulation model that can see the condition of the buyan lake in the future. The approach used in the simulation model of the Buyan Lake condition base on (1) Sedimentation, (2) Landslides, (3) Rainfall, (4) Expansion of agricultural land around the lake, (5) Fishery activities, (6) Weed development., (7) Condition of the surrounding forest. The simulation developed is based on dynamic modeling. The simulation results show the possibility of experiencing shrinkage above 5%. The same thing is in accordance with real field data, that the shrinkage of the lake area from 1999 with an area of 439 Ha to 2009, with an area of 413 Ha, and at the end of 2015 only 376 Ha.
Keywords: Dynamic Modeling- Simulation- Damage of Lake - Buyan lake
