Panel Regression Analysis of Disaster Factors on the Growth of COVID-19 Cases in Java to Optimize Health Protocols in Refugees Afdelia Novianti(a), Nanda Lailatul Humairoh(a), Rahmi Novika Harahap(a), Sheilta Alphenia(a), Achmad Fauzan(a*)
a)Statistics Department, Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Science, Universitas Islam Indonesia, Yogyakarta, Indonesia
*achmadfauzan[at]uii.ac.id
Abstract
The highest COVID-19 cases in Indonesia is in Java Island, in addition to the COVID-19 disease outbreak, Indonesia is now also faced with the emergence of other natural disasters. Natural disaster has a serious impact, where this situation is exacerbated by the presence of COVID-19 which causes disaster victims to evacuate cannot be carried out as usual, but changes are needed with the application of health protocols that are in accordance with the barriers to the spread of COVID-19 at the site. This study aims to determine the relationship between the growth of COVID-19 cases with the incidence of natural disasters and the number of refugees due to natural disasters on Java Island. The data of total of natural disaster and total of refugee that collected during March 2020 until June 2021 will be used. In this study, the method used is panel regression that can measure the effect of variables. The result show that using Random Effect Model, the variables have no effect on the rise of the positive number of COVID-19 on Java Island, it can be conclude that what the government has implemented is good and the community^s compliance with the protocol is quite helpful. Based on these problems, the protocol applied in Java can be used as a reference for other local governments in Indonesia that are being affected by natural disasters.
