Uncertainty in Convalescent Plasma Transfusion Mathematical Model H Husniah*, Ruhanda and A K Supriatna
Universitas langlangbuanan dan universitas padjadjaran
Abstract
In this paper we develop a mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission dynamics. Due to restrictive availability of COVID-19 vaccine on the market and also its low rate of efficacy, handling the COVID-19 pandemic is still a difficult problem to do. Preventive actions, such as wearing masks, distance guarding, frequent hand washing, and others are still the most important interventions in handling the transmission of this disease. Recently several countries have allowed the use of convalescent plasma transfusion (CPT) in the management of moderate and severe COVID-19 patients. Several early studies of this use have yielded prospective results with reduced mortality rates. A recent work also shows by using a simple discrete mathematical model, that the uses of CPT for COVID-19 patients can reduce the outbreak, in the sense of reducing the peak number of active cases and the length of the outbreak itself. The model used is the simplest discrete SIR and SEIR models. The aforementioned work assumes that all the parameters are crisp constants, hence it ignore the presence of uncertainty. In this paper we explore the effect of uncertainty into in the result derived from the SEIR model. We use fuzzy theoretical framework and look at on how the fuzzyness of the initial values propagate into the output of the model.
